We haven’t mentioned this event much, say for the odd tweet, mainly because it is just that. An event. A spectacle. We don’t write many articles on West End performances or the latest Hollywood blockbuster so why bother with this show?
Well, because according to the Nevada State Athletic Commission it is in fact a professionally licensed boxing match. More than that, it is an opportunity for arguably the finest boxer of my lifetime to surpass Rocky Marciano’s famous 49-0 undefeated record. What significance you attribute to that particular accolade is up to you. But you can guarantee many of those purchasing the card will be aware of, and impressed by, it.
Despite the title of the article, I have very little interest in how much Mayweather and McGregor will earn out of this. That is not through bitterness or resentment. Well, maybe a little is! Who wouldn’t enter the ring for even a fraction of what they are set to make? What is more of interest to me, is what the common punter could potentially earn out of this.
Certain bookmakers are offering odds as short as 1/4. For those of you who aren’t sure what that means; If you put £4o on Floyd to do the business, you will make a £10 profit. Not particularly generous odds when you consider the pair involved. Unless you have a spare $880,000 to stake like one such gambler in the states. It isn’t surprising then that the majority of bets have actually gone on the underdog. With the value on offer, it will take massive amounts to make any worthwhile profit on a Mayweather win. Those with less disposable cash have seemingly been tempted by the odds of around 4/1. It is very, very easy to be taken in by McGregor. I’ve long since been convinced that the man can fight and vowed never to doubt him again since he overcame his supposed kryptonite in wrestler Chad Mendes. He since lost to Nate Diaz however, which shows he is human.
So ignoring the sheer craziness of how fancied a 0-0 boxer is (Terence Crawford was 1/16, so four times more likely, to beat fellow World Champion Julius Indongo last weekend), let’s examine where the value could lie. Token disclaimer that gambling is a mugs’ game and the bookie always wins. Especially where we are concerned!
If, as 99% of boxing fans appear to, you believe Floyd “Money” Mayweather will do the business (inside the ring, as well as out) then you probably want to examine how he will do it. There appear to be two trains of thought here. I’m slightly leaning towards this going the distance, and I’m aware I’m in the minority here. This is based on the form of both boxers here. Ignore Floyd’s claims that he owes the fans and he wants the KO. He has huge previous for this. He sells fights, that’s what he does. Then he minimises risk inside it. He will respect Conor’s power, especially early on, and take his time to work out his awkward opponent. I also believe that Conor McGregor is made of stern stuff. A lot, and I mean a lot, has been made of the glove size. “Notorious” has taken shots with 4oz gloves on. That’s a fact. He hasn’t been knocked out before. Also fact. If you share my faith in McGregor’s chin you can more than double your money with all but the tightest bookies, by having Mayweather winning on points.
McGregor doing the same hasn’t really been mooted by many. And with good reason. Floyd is a master of outboxing and outfoxing opponents over 12 rounds. He’s done against many of the biggest names in the sport. So he can easily do it against someone not in the sport. In theory yes, a pound for pound boxing great should be able to quickly dismantle a debutant, no matter how hard they hit or how wide his stance will be. I just don’t see it. If Mayweather comes out more aggressive than usual and looks for the early stoppage he is more than capable of finding it. As is his way though, I envisage that any stoppage will be the result of an accumulation of clean shots, rather than a change in tact from “Money May”. With that in mind, I’d be tempted to look at group round betting with Mayweather eventually wearing down the Irishman into the second half of the fight.
Then again, what do we know? Lump your money on McGregor by knockout and be done with it!